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WEST MONROE, La. — (2/28/2023) Warm, humid conditions will feed an environment ripe for severe weather across much of the southern United States on Thursday. Some isolated severe storms could develop in our area as early as tomorrow (Wednesday) afternoon. Here’s the latest breakdown of what we know:

Overcast skies are likely to ramp up across the region overnight. Temperatures will likely hold steady in the mid to upper 60s, with a breezy southerly wind. Rain chances overnight are likely to remain low, but a stray shower or storm could be possible across southern Arkansas by daybreak. Any early day rain or storm activity should have a low severe risk.

A large upper-level storm system will generate severe weather potential for both Wednesday and Thursday, but the two days vary in their overall set up. For Wednesday afternoon, a lead disturbance will eject out ahead of the main upper low, interacting with a warm, humid, unstable air mass.

While storm coverage is likely to stay quite limited due to a capping inversion aloft, any storms that can break through the cap could become severe. Damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes will be possible; however, instances of large hail may be the greatest threat with some of these Wednesday storms. Again, for Wednesday, coverage of rain/storms are likely to remain limited. At this time, the best ingredients for severe storm potential through Wednesday night appears to be areas along and north of I-20.

Most storm potential should exit before midnight Wednesday. Rain chances will thin back out for Wednesday night and early Thursday morning.

As the main upper level low swings eastward, a much more volatile environment becomes established across several states (including the ArkLaMiss) for Thursday afternoon/night.

The positioning of the upper trough becomes favorable for widespread severe storm development starting Thursday afternoon and carrying through Thursday night. In terms of specific timing for arrival of storms, it’s still a little too early to speculate on those details; however, it’s best that most residents are prepared for storm development as early as lunchtime Thursday.

All modes of severe weather will be possible. Given the favorable environment in place, there will be potential for episodes of significant severe weather. That said, it’s impossible to forecast those types of isolated impacts.

All ArkLaMiss residents should be prepared for rapidly changing weather conditions Thursday afternoon/night. Remember, not everyone will see severe weather… but, conditions will be favorable for the entire viewing area.

Spring in the ArkLaMiss is the same song every year. We’re going to see severe weather risks, and we’ve seen several through the winter months. Staying weather aware is truly a way of life for much of the southern United States. Here’s where to start:

Residents are urged to have the most updated weather information, as it becomes available. Additional forecasts, graphics, outlooks, and more can be found here. We’ll continue to keep you updated with the latest information on-air and online.

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